Week 1 NFL Picks

 Welcome to week 1! Quick analysis of each pick below

Austin Ekeler Over 7.55 Fantasy Points

As everyone knows Brian Robinson was traded. Early hype is that 7th round rookie Jacory Croskey-Meritt is going to jump in and get a large share of the workload keeping Ekeler in the same role he had last year. I am not so sure. Recent news from the team is that Ekeler is the starting RB. Sure maybe as the season progresses Jacory will get more work but not week 1. If the team gives Chris Rodriguez work they don't want to win. People are writing off Ekeler because he's old. The guy is only 30 which isn't a spring chicken but plenty of players produce at that age. It was not that long ago Ekeler was an every down monster on the Chargers. 

Went with Fantasy points just in case he does end up in a specific role on the field. That is the worst case and honestly even if he is in a 40% snap change of pace role like last year he still has a pretty good chance of hitting that number. If he's a 60% snap starter then lock it in. 

Wan'Dale Robinson Over 35.5 Rec Yard

You may not know this but Wan'Dale was actually tied for 12th in Targets last year. He might have been one of the most inefficient players ever with those targets BUT it's hard to blame him with who was throwing him the ball. Even with those Qb's he hit this over in 7 of his last 8 games. Russell Wilson is not what he once was but I promise he is an upgrade over what Wan'Dale has had in the past. Giants are going to have to keep up with the Commanders offense by throwing the ball. 

Jahmyrr Gibbs Over 23.5 Rec Yards

There is a chance this line is higher soon because I don't understand why it's so low. Gibbs hit this in 7 of his last 9 games at the end of last season. Mostly by a wide margin. The two games he missed where against the Bears and the Colts in slugfests. Week 1 the lions play the Packers in a game which currently has the 2nd highest projected total of the week. Last season the packers gave up the 3rd most receiving yards to RB's in the NFL. 

Courtland Sutton Over 57.5 Rec Yards

Sutton is a player I think everyone is sleeping on this year. Over the last 10 games last season he averaged 80.4 yards per game. Bo Nix took some time to develop last season but in those games it became clear that he sees Sutton as his go-to guy. There is no reason to think this combination isn't going to pick up where it left off. A little concerned by the Titans matchup as there is a chance Cam Ward comes out and throws enough picks that the Broncos never have to throw the ball. If the titans keep it a game this might be the last time you see Sutton's line this low all season. 

Alvin Kamara Over 27.5 Rec Yards

Kamara is still one of the greatest receiving backs in the league. The Saints are probably the worst team in the NFL and by the 2nd half the Cardinals will be happy to let Kamara get as many 5 yard dump offs as he can manage. 

Justin Fields Over 15.45 Fantasy Points

No one should ever confuse Justin Fields with an elite QB in the NFL. BUT it is hard to deny that when it comes to fantasy football he is constantly slept on. Average Fantasy stats by season below

2022 20.5 PPG 

2023 18.4 PPG

2024 18.9 PPG (in games he started)

Week 1 he also happens to play a Steelers team that benched him even though he really did nothing wrong and was 4-2 as a starter. Tough defense to play against but 15.45 points is a pretty low bar for a QB with the rushing talent that Fields has

Garett Wilson Over 55.5 Rec Yards

Garett Wilson is a player that many are down on this year because of the guy we just talked about. He also disappeared a little bit at the end of last season once Adams came to town. BUT considering Rodgers/Adams connection can you really blame Wilson? Back to Justin Fields people think he hurts his Receivers BUT look no further than DJ Moore in 2023. In the 13 games that Fields and Moore played together DJ Moore averaged 89 yards per game and 18.9 PPR points per game. He put together easily his best games as an NFL player with Justin Fields. A tough defense with the steelers but I think Garett Wilson is ready to show what he can do outside of Adams shadow again. 

Breece Hall Over 44.5 Rush Yards

The Jets theme continues so hopefully the Steelers Defense doesn't cause problems. There is a lot of talk about a committe in New York. Pretty much every team has a committee of some sort. It is not like the Jets added a new talented piece in the draft either. Braelon Allen was there last year and averaged 3.6 ypc. Breece hall is hands down the far more talented back. Unless he screws up he is going to get 60% of the snaps and 12+ carries. With Breece Halls speed he might just hit this line in 1 play. 

Dylan Sampson Under 39.5 Rush Yards

I actually like Sampson a lot and think if this Judkins drama continues he could be the Browns go to guy by mid season. BUT it's week 1 and the browns starter is a guy they know they can trust in Jerome Ford. The browns Week 1 matchup is against the Bengals who will almost certainly put the browns in a game script where they are playing from behind. I don't see the team running the ball more than 20 times in this game and I think in that case it would be at WORST a 12 - 8 split between the two backs. Sampson having over 8 carries is a long shot and that means he needs to average a lofty 5 ypc to hit this total. 

George Kittle Under 66.5 Rec Yards

Last season kittle was a monster tight end for the 49ers. BUT 66.5 yards is a high target for a Tight end. Especially since another monster is back and (seemingly) healthy for the 49ers. CMC is a guy who when he is on the field he demands touches. The game is in Seattle which is always a tough place to play and games between these two teams always end up being slugfests. Low play totals can be expected and with a couple talented WR's on the outside also demanding work I think it's unlikely Kittle sees more than 7 targets in this game. As long as 1 of those targets doesn't go for 40+ yards we should be fine.