Week 2 Sunday Picks

Overall a solid week 1 but it came so close to an incredible week 1 that it felt like a let down. (I had a 6 leg parlay that missed because Ekeler couldn't get 0.3 more points....)

A little more data to digest now that all the teams have a game with their new depth charts. Picks of the week below!

Jerome Ford Under 10.5 Receiving Yards

In week 1 we had Dylan Sampson's under with the expectation Ford would dominate the touches. Well he did so in the first half but looked absolutely horrendous. Luckily even with 12 carries Sampson didn't hit his total but Sampson did look like a great checkdown option and dominated the snaps in the 2nd half. After the game the Browns officially changed their depth chart and listed Dylan Sampson as the starter. 

To further complicate things Quinshon Judkins is officially active for this game. It is difficult to say what his role will be but there is a realistic chance that Jerome Ford does not even see the field as the 3rd option. No matter what Ford has never been seen as much of a receiving back and probably needs 2 catches at least to hit this total. 

*NOTE* this is kind of a strange pick that i'm honestly surprised even exists. It is on the Underdog App at this moment but I wouldn't be surprised if it's difficult to find elsewhere. 

Stefan Diggs Over 41.5 Receiving Yards

In week 1 Diggs only played 41% of the snap counts. My assumption is this is because he is coming off the ACL tear last year and they are easing him into action. All reports say that he is fully healthy and in the snaps he did play last week he looked just like his old self with 6 catches for 57 yards. I do not see how the patriots don't boost his snap total this week into the 60-70% range at minimum. Add on to the fact that the patriots are playing a Dolphins defense that just made people think Daniel Jones might actually not be a horrible QB (those people are wrong) and this line simply seems too low. 

Kenneth Walker Under 45.5 Rush Yards

One of the big surprises from last week was Kenneth Walker. There were signs in Training camp that the NEW coaching staff was impressed with Charbonett but the depth chart still showed Walker as the starter and in the past Walker has always been the guy when both were healthy. BUT last week it wasn't just a timeshare for Walker. He was actually on the losing end of the timeshare with only 40% of the snaps to 60%. On top of that he didn't just look bad. He looked atrocious. Charbonett didn't have a great game but simply looked like the better back. I do think that Walker will bounce back a bit and maybe even regain his lead in the timeshare but this week is not the week to do so. Seattle has to fly all the way a crossed the country and play IN Pittsburgh. A defense that people are down on a bit because of what the Jets were able to do last week. I think that was more the Jets defense being surprisingly good than the steelers Defense being a problem. Unless last week was a fluke and Walker regains his starting role with 15+ carries this line seems too high. 

Garett Wilson Over 60.5 Rec Yards

I'll put it simply. I do not believe for a second last week was a fluke and think that Fields is the perfect fit for this Jets offense. They are a top 10 offense who will light up the scoreboard week after week. This week they get the Bills who just let Zay Flowers torch them for 130 yards. I expect the Fields to Wilson connection to continue to thrive and in a shootout vs the Bills he should again approach 100 Yards receiving if not surpass it. 

Jerry Jeudy Over 54.5 Rec Yards

The browns go up against the ravens this week and again I expect the gamescript to be negative for them right from the start. Joe Flacco is a QB who is not afraid to throw the ball 40-50 times in a game and this is one of those games. Jeudy should see 8+ targets again and the Ravens secondary is not going to keep him quiet with that volume. (Might be a bit of a sweat pick that comes late in the game)

George Pickens Under 59.5 Rec yards

I haven't really understood the Pickens hype as Dak has neve really had a 2nd receiver who thrived. Or at least not thrived to the point their Over/Under is 60 yards. The cowboys face the Giants this week who might have the worst offense in the NFL. Just like washington in week 1 there should be no reason for Dallas to force the ball and since Pickens is the deep threat I don't see him being featured this week. Sure there is a chance he makes a ridiculous 1 handed 40 yard catch in traffic to make me look dumb but my bet is he has another quiet week just like week 1. 

Puka Nacua Under 80.5 Rec Yards

The Tennessee Titans have quietly been an incredible defense at limiting opposing WR's. Part of that is gamescript related because other teams are usually in the lead but whatever the reason it is rare that receivers thrive when playing the Titans. Last week Nacua showed that the connection with Stafford is still top notch. BUT I do think that the split is going to end up leaning to be more balanced with Adams as the season goes on. This is one of the highest Rec totals of the week and in a tough matchup in an offense with 2 primary pass catchers I think it's an easy fade. 

Matthew Stafford Under 240.5 Pass Yards

Same reasons as Puka above the Titans do not let teams beat them through the air. The Rams are 7 point favorites so there is a good chance they are just running out the clock throughout the second half. Even if they aren't I do not see a risk of a shootout with the Titans offense as Cam Ward still has a long way to go to being an effective QB.

Drake Maye Over 220.5 Pass Yards

See Stefon Diggs for most of the reason. On top of that this total just seems too low. 290 yards last week. There were a few games last season where he struggled but he didn't have as talented of a supporting cast. 221 is a low total for a QB to hit ESPECIALLY against the dolphins. Fire it up. 

Alvin Kamara Over 22.5 Pass Yards

I have to imagine the saints locker room talked a lot about how Kamara only saw TWO targets last week when they threw the ball over 40 times... Honestly straight up stupid to not involve your best player in the way that he is at his best (in the open field). Hopefully this time when the Saints are trailing they start to feed the guy who at least makes the team interesting. A little concerned by the 49ers tempo limiting plays to the Saints or this line would be up in the Locks. 

Saquon Barkley Over 16.5 Rec Yards

No Dallas Goedert this week means a few extra targets to go around. RB and TE targets typically occupy the same space so I expect Saquon to receive some of that extra work. If Saquon gets 5 targets then this line is a lock. 

RJ Harvey Over 30.5 Rush Yards

I do not know who Tyler Badie is but hopefully after playing BAD last week and Payton getting questioned by reporters as to why he was even on the field prevents him from touching the field this week. RJ Harvey played only 29% of the snaps in week 1 but he looked GOOD and took his 6 carries for 70 yards. I think Harvey is a player who will slowly see his role grow as the season progresses and think 8 carries is the minimum he sees this week against the colts. I do not see Daniel Jones doing what he did against Miami against a real defense (and arguably one of the best). Great time for Harvey to see the field is in the 2nd half with a double digit lead running out the clock.