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Week 2 Sunday Picks

Overall a solid week 1 but it came so close to an incredible week 1 that it felt like a let down. (I had a 6 leg parlay that missed because Ekeler couldn't get 0.3 more points....) A little more data to digest now that all the teams have a game with their new depth charts. Picks of the week below! Jerome Ford Under 10.5 Receiving Yards In week 1 we had Dylan Sampson's under with the expectation Ford would dominate the touches. Well he did so in the first half but looked absolutely horrendous. Luckily even with 12 carries Sampson didn't hit his total but Sampson did look like a great checkdown option and dominated the snaps in the 2nd half. After the game the Browns officially changed their depth chart and listed Dylan Sampson as the starter.  To further complicate things Quinshon Judkins is officially active for this game. It is difficult to say what his role will be but there is a realistic chance that Jerome Ford does not even see the field as the 3rd option. No matter wh...
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Week 2 TNF Parlay

We had a solid week 1 but with 2 tough misses that would have made it a CRAZY week 1. Picks for a Thursday night parlay below.  Jayden Daniels Over 226.5 Passing Yards Jayden Daniels passing totals were hit and miss last season hitting this total in 8 out of the 15 games he played the whole game (2 games missed by 0.5). Deebo Samuel gives this team a different dynamic than last year and we saw how he can benefit the offense in week 1. Against the Giants Washington never really needed to push the tempo so Jayden just barely topped 230 yards. The Packers offense is much more formidable and this will be a BIG Thursday night matchup for potential NFC favorites. They did hold Goff to a low total last week which is concerning but the lions had a LOT of coaching turnover and are still working out the kinks.  Terry McLaurin Over 4.5 Receptions Last week Terry had a very quiet game and all of the sudden everyone is worried he's now a 2nd tier receiver in this offense to Deebo. I don't ...
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Week 1 NFL Picks

 Welcome to week 1! Quick analysis of each pick below Austin Ekeler Over 7.55 Fantasy Points As everyone knows Brian Robinson was traded. Early hype is that 7th round rookie Jacory Croskey-Meritt is going to jump in and get a large share of the workload keeping Ekeler in the same role he had last year. I am not so sure. Recent news from the team is that Ekeler is the starting RB. Sure maybe as the season progresses Jacory will get more work but not week 1. If the team gives Chris Rodriguez work they don't want to win. People are writing off Ekeler because he's old. The guy is only 30 which isn't a spring chicken but plenty of players produce at that age. It was not that long ago Ekeler was an every down monster on the Chargers.  Went with Fantasy points just in case he does end up in a specific role on the field. That is the worst case and honestly even if he is in a 40% snap change of pace role like last year he still has a pretty good chance of hitting that number. If he...
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Player Prop Betting FAQ's

 Player Prop Betting FAQ's Q: What is a Unit? A: A unit is basically a personalized bet size. Instead of tracking bets with a $ amount all bets and results are tracked using units. This is because everyone can afford to bet different amounts.  Q: How big should my unit size be? A: This one depends a bit on your personal risk tolerance. My recommendation is to set aside whatever you feel comfortable into your betting account. This should be an amount you feel comfortable losing. The algo helps pick good bets but this is still gambling.  Whatever that number is divide by 40-50 and you have a solid unit size. This will make you're account resistant to cold streaks. For example last year we had a 30 unit losing streak. If your unit size was too large then you bankrupted yourself before you could hit the +40 unit streak we had the next 3 weeks. Q: How much should I bet on each prop? A: I recommend one unit per bet. There are some players which will end up having multiple bets ...
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